Trinidad-Mayorga

[hardcorecap]

Well im not really into the RJJ fight tomorrow night, so i figured we could start the discussion a little early for this big fight on the 2nd.
Looking at it, Trinidad should be able to beat him easily. I really dont think im going to make a big play on this one, because there are too many factors that are up in the air on both sides. One thing i do konw is that this will be a very exciting fight, and either guy can easily win by a KO.

One factor is Trinidad's long layoff. He hasnt had a competitive fight in over 3 years, getting knocked out by Hopkins. This guy always brings it and is willing to go toe-toe with anyone. He also has great power from both hands. There were rumors that his reflexes were starting to go from all the wars in the ring, and that is why he retired. Also what does he have left in the tank?

The reason i will make a small play on Mayorga to win by KO is that he likes to fight someone who will be there to hit like Forrest. Vernon had far superior skills to Ricardo, but he isnt elusive enough that he can punch and get out before Mayorga throws his wild, unpredictable shots. Trinidad punches harder than Forrest, but his style is very similar in that he will def be there to get hit. The only way Spinks could beat Mayorga is to punch from the outside and get out before Ricardo could land. Plus, Mayorga has a great chin, as we saw in the second Forrest fight. I have a hard time seeing him get KO'd, though it is very well possible.

I know alot of people dissagree with my take on it, but Mayorga is so unpredictable that you dont know what to expect from him, besides that he will fight balls to the wall when the bell rings, and the punches will come from all angles.

Bottom line is that i think Tito and his team are nuts for taking this as his first fight back. He can win and make is look easy, but this is a very risky fight. i would never bet on a 3-1 favorite who hasnt fought in over 2 years and is fighting a former undisputed champ. I will be waiting until the weigh in, to make sure Mayorga is in shape, and then i will be taking him for next saturday night. Anyways let me know what you guys think. Thanks

 

[Gil]

Since Tito retired... Mayorga has been in the ring with Vernon Forrest, Cory Spinks, and Mitchell.

Felix could be very rusty... and we know Mayorga isn't.

I like the odds for Mayorga by KO.

 

[sphincter]

i see it pretty much the same way....trinidad did whack hassine cheriffi after the hopkins loss....


mayorga...wild and wide with those punches....trinidad...when he`s sharp,a very accurate,straight puncher....bad for mayorga....

and,i don`t think mayorga`s had any bouts at middleweight....not to mention he`s been doing alot of talking about retiring himself...that`s never good....

also,questions about mayorga carrying the chin and power to middleweight...

but...and a big but,that layoff for tito...as hardcore said,that`s a tough thing to buck....to come back vs a very dangerous puncher like mayorga....first time out.....very dangerous...

how`s this thing ever get to the cards?...i`m trying to figure how this goes the distance....

the only way i can see this going to the cards is if there`s a brisk pace early and both guys weather the storm.....and get exhausted early...

neither guy`s gonna dance....they should be right in front of one another...
maybe play inside the distance or the under....

mayorga`s worth a side play inside the distance at about +350 or so...

can this thing see 12?

tito`s achilles heel are boxers...dlh made him look bad......hopkins stepped to the side and outboxed tito....

but that`s not what mayorga does....

without the layoff,i`m all over trinidad...with the layoff,it`s an totally different dynamic....

not just being sharp...but you haven`t taken REAL punches in a long time...

it should be a question of who lands their big shots first....and who carries the weight....my guess is that trinidad carries the weight a little better...

mayorga with the better whiskers...at welterweight,though...

how`s this go the distance?...short of two guys losing the speed and snap on their shots and collapsing under the excess weight.....

i have to speak to some guys...be back...

btw...nice write up h.c.c.....

 

[sphincter]

jones/johnson

as far as saturday goes,i keep thinking back to how bad physically jones looked in tarver/jones 1 and also 2...he looked like the living dead in the first one...

i think 175 is a real chore for roy....and although johnson is a high end journeyman,and that`s what he is,he`s durable and comes to fight....he`ll work for 3 minutes of every round...

the only thing that keeps me from putting something on the over is roy`s embarrassment over getting put to sleep by tarver....

i think if johnson can make itinto the 7th or 8th,he`ll finish...

i don`t really think roy`s a lt heavyweight anymore...

 

[sphincter]

let me be clear...i`m not touting the over...i don`t think i`m playing it myself...johnson will be aggressive...and get hit alot...


roy may want to make a statement after tarver....

can he do it at lt heavy?....or is the struggle to make 175 to high a price?....

johnson`s a good style match-up for jones,though....

next week looks solid....

g.l.

 

[hardcorecap]

Yea i think Jones looked even worse for the 2nd Tarver fight. He just looked weak. I guess thats what happens when you lose 15 pounds of muscle to make weight. I remember Clinton Woods making it to the 7th or 8th i think, and outworking Roy on the ropes. Also Glen Kelly, before he was ruined by a hands behind the back shot, i believe that was i the 8th too. I def think Johnson has a good shot to win this if he outhustles Roy and can push him around. As far as it going the distance, that looks to be very likely. Johnson is a tough guy, and i dont think we will see RJJ take any big chances until he has him very hurt. Last thing he needs is to get caught again. I think it is def worth the play.

Sphincter, thanks for the compliment. I do think that Trinidad should win this fight, i just dont know if he will win this fight. Don King loves Mayorga, and maybe he is feeding him to Mayorga. Sounds crazy, but who knows, as Felix left Don hanging a few years ago. Mayorga is too dangerous, and if you look at Tito's record, he has won but been knocked down in alot of his bigger fights. Mayorga is one of the hardest punchers he has ever faced. That tells you that in his prime, Tito was always open to get hit. How much more open will he be coming off retirement. Mayorga by Ko is def worth a play, if even a small one.

 

[hardcorecap]

hey Sphincter, what happened to all of the other good boxing cappers we had on here before DLH-Hopkins. Havent heard from them since. Id like to hear feedback from then and see what they think on Mayorga-Trinidad.

 

[hardcorecap]

I must say i am shocked that everyone who shares their knowledge on boxing and MMA hasnt been around in 2 weeks. This fight, i believe may be the fight of the year. You have to guys who BRING IT. They only know one way to fight. It really could go either way. Tito is more skilled and a bit bigger, but he also has been on the canvas alot more than Mayorga. We will be in for a treat. BTW, just saws the weigh in and the sparks were flying. Both of these guys are great for the sport in there own way, and even though im pulling for Mayorga, i would love to see a great fight where both guys can benifit in the long run, like a Gatti-Ward. Anyone with any opinions please chime in

 

[sphincter]

hardcore...if you want me to hip you to a site that talks a little boxing,throw your e mail up....this place is dying...

 

[hardcorecap]

Derekduz25@hotmail.com. I guess all the DeLaHoya nuthuggers are now hiding

 

[Royler]

Honestly, guys, when the forum switched to a new server, I was just too lazy to request my new password.

I'm not a huge boxing fan (as opposed to MMA) but I'm looking forward to the fight. Way I see it, Trinidad's inactivity is going to be cancelled out by Mayorga's move up in weight and his current problems with Johnny Law. If he's been busy accosting women and avoiding court dates, he's probably been too busy to train.

More to the point...Trinidad represents a largely unmilked cash cow for Don King. You've got a personable fighter with a huge following who has countless marquee fights to choose from. DLH II, Hopkins II... King is undervalued as a boxing strategist. He knows his stuff inside the ring as much as what's being put to paper. He's not going to jeopardize Tito's bid. Mayorga is a perfect comeback vehicle because he's seen as a looming threat. In all reality, he's got one chance, which is to get up to 100 mph in the first three rounds and hope he can connect. After that, his cardio is going to be a problem, and his chin is going to fold against the hard-hitting Tito.

Mayorga's biggest win was the shocker against Forrest, which HBO rebroadcast last night. Vernon really had no idea what he was in for, and Mayorga was a bit too generous with the punches to the back of the head. By contrast, Trinidad's fight with Joppy was a masterclass in boxing brutality. Tito has the (relative) punching power of Tyson with the finesse to support it.

What I can't call is whether it's a distance fight or not: while they've both done their share of knocking people down, these guys don't accept the favor as readily. Tito has only been finished once, and it took Hopkins twelve rounds to do it. Mayorga was done in his first pro fight eleven years ago, but hasn't had a repeat since. Factor in questionable conditioning of both guys and I'm not comfortable playing the under.

I'm thinking the factors outside the arena determine the winner here: King backs a winning horse and Mayorga starts looking for a lawyer. Trinidad by decision.

 

[winkyduck]

i agree with ya royler in that if it goes to a decision, don "only in america" king arranges it so that Trinidad wins - and probbaly/possibly a fight he didn't deserve to win - as is so often the case with King/Tito.

that is why i am scared at Mayorga +200ish here - because i know if he doesn't KO Titio - and the fight goes to the judges - Tito will win.

 

[sphincter]

royler...that`s an excellent point...can`t be underestimated.....if it gets to the cards...



both trinidad and mayorga have seen the 12 round distance....usually,though,vs an opponent that wants no part of them...or boxes like dlh or hopkins....people forget that hopkins was on the move for much of this fight

if one of these guys starts going backwards,it will probably be over for them..i can`t ever remember either in any fight i`ve seen them in being the pursued...

as i said,usually when it looks this obvious,that`s the kiss of death...

still can`t wrap my mind around a scenario in which these macho latinos don`try and whack one another out....

but,this is boxing...this year,the unusual is the norm....

gun to my head,tito weathers the early storm and chops mayorga down...even with all the rust...no comparison skill-wise...

glad you stopped in...great point on the king factor...

 

[hardcorecap]

I agree with you guys, as I can see Tito winning, but i jsut have a hard time seeing Mayorga get KTFO. The longer he stays around the more dangerous it is for Trinidad. I just have a gut feeling on this one that Mayorga catches him and shocks the world, yet again. Not sure if I will play on it, maybe a small one for the hell of it.
This is why this is such a great fight. Out of the 4 possible outcomes, there isnt one that everyone can agree on. This is a great fight to watch, not a great fight to bet. Hopkins-DLH was a great fight to bet, if you believed in Hopkins.